Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 1.984443 2.100031 2.221390 2.358752 2.510457 2.673509 2.862853
2025-09-28 1.785639 1.941431 2.112512 2.315850 2.552987 2.823406 3.158955
2025-10-05 1.700867 1.885109 2.094090 2.351681 2.664968 3.039588 3.531016
2025-10-12 1.638931 1.844522 2.083901 2.387987 2.771285 3.249148 3.908699
2025-10-19 1.585722 1.807632 2.071778 2.416147 2.864127 3.444175 4.283947
2025-10-26 1.522744 1.753443 2.032908 2.404973 2.901734 3.565863 4.568326
2025-11-02 1.467371 1.704578 1.996375 2.392169 2.933188 3.678196 4.848265
2025-11-09 1.411325 1.651457 1.950666 2.362961 2.938028 3.750681 5.073328
2025-11-16 1.359935 1.601521 1.905964 2.331405 2.935722 3.810258 5.282219
2025-11-23 1.326583 1.572970 1.887264 2.333231 2.979563 3.940183 5.620708
2025-11-30 1.302820 1.555541 1.881935 2.352418 3.048748 4.113493 6.056673
2025-12-07 1.260898 1.512444 1.840021 2.317247 3.033751 4.151151 6.252763
2025-12-14 1.219910 1.469772 1.797764 2.280541 3.015639 4.184710 6.451737
2025-12-21 1.179952 1.427185 1.754022 2.239532 2.988177 4.200199 6.618149
2025-12-28 1.168225 1.422044 1.761497 2.273465 3.079783 4.425411 7.246569
2026-01-04 1.157397 1.417522 1.769318 2.307822 3.173872 4.664203 7.955375
2026-01-11 1.144756 1.409910 1.772208 2.334458 3.256675 4.891073 8.691816
2026-01-18 1.121476 1.386712 1.751766 2.323890 3.275759 4.999661 9.168991
2026-01-25 1.099025 1.363958 1.731080 2.311778 3.291045 5.101920 9.654737
2026-02-01 1.073211 1.335738 1.701457 2.284141 3.277307 5.144814 9.991832
2026-02-08 1.048004 1.307722 1.671257 2.254269 3.257711 5.173786 10.297983
2026-02-15 1.032880 1.293611 1.661075 2.255998 3.294571 5.323294 11.000533
2026-02-22 1.022965 1.286615 1.661133 2.274162 3.362250 5.545899 12.007703